I think the thermostat metaphor is something people can relate to. But I would feel better about that lovely metaphor if I knew there was any actual science underlying it. And by "science" I mean hundreds and thousands of subjects in controlled studies who didn't just self-report re their behavior, since self-reports in the areas of eating and weight control are notoriously inaccurate.
I can, however, report on my own situation. When I hit 150 pounds I thought I was done. BTW, 150 pounds was my own goal (never even told my surgeon that). Anyway, at 150 pounds I started eating 1700 calories/day, thinking that would keep me from regaining. To my great surprise, during the next 9 months I lost another 15 pounds, down to 135 while averaging 1700 calories/day. And there my weight loss stopped. I stayed at that weight for nearly 2 years, during which time my average daily calories rose slightly to 1,750.
Then last September I decided to eat more veggies and fruits and have been eating 8 a day since then. In eating more veggies and fruits, I am now eating an extra 100 calories a day -- 1,850 daily cals on average. From September through mid-January I lost three more pounds. And there I stayed until a month ago.
In the past month, I've endured significant stress and lost yet another 3 pounds because I've been eating less. Happily, I've now stopped losing weight and am slowly working back up to 1,850 cals/day (I'm at 1500-1600 right now). I'm betting when I get there my weight will settle in the low 130s.
All that's to say, for me, weight loss appears to be a calories-in/calories-out thing. What works for me isn't "science," but just one person's experience. I don't know how extrapolatable it will be to you or anyone else. That's another way of saying "Your mileage may vary."
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